By the time they are 11 years old the majority of children have made up their mind about their future - and stick to their plans, according to new research.
A study carried out by the Economic and Social Research Council found that 80% of 11-year-olds who said they were going to continue in education after 16 did so, and that almost 70% of those who said they were going to leave school did not return after their GCSEs.
Professor Paul Croll, who carried out the study, said the results revealed that many children had taken important decisions by the time they left primary school. "It is very striking that intentions about staying on or not are actually realised in such a high proportion of cases," he said.
The link between achievement at 11 and later in life has been well documented. Last week Ruth Kelly, the education secretary, gave a speech to the Institute for Public Policy Research that stressed the importance of quality childcare and pre-school education.
But Prof Croll's research - which analysed the responses of 11-year-old children in the first term of secondary school, asked whether they would stay in education after they were 16 - is the first to highlight the extent to which children have already made decisions about their future by the time they leave primary school.
"These results show that young people's orientations towards education and schooling are relatively firmly fixed by the time they leave primary school," said Prof Croll.
"However, it should also be noted that most of those who say they will leave waver ... and, at least at some points, they become unsure about their intentions."
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